Estimating the Actual Population of Ukraine’s Unoccupied Regions

As the situation in Ukraine continues to evolve, the precise population of the unoccupied regions remains a topic of much speculation and debate. This article aims to provide a comprehensive overview and estimation of the current population in the areas controlled by the Government of Ukraine, based on available data and statistical analysis.

Historical Population and Regional Breakdown

Before the conflict, Ukraine, excluding the Crimean Peninsula, claimed a population of approximately 41 million. However, this number includes both registered residents and seasonal workers, many of whom return to their home regions seasonally.

A conservative estimate suggests that around 38 million people were the regular, registered residents, excluding the rebel-controlled regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, which had populations of approximately 3.6 million each. When considering the seasonal workforce, the actual number of residents at any given moment would be reduced, potentially to between 33 and 35 million.

Impact of the War

The start of the war in Ukraine led to significant population displacement. Ukrainian officials estimate that around 8 million people left the country during the conflict. However, the exact breakdown of these people in relation to the pre-conflict population is unclear.

A substantial portion of these 8 million have since returned due to various factors, including better living conditions and access to social services in the western parts of the country. Additionally, many people continue to leave, either for economic reasons or to seek refuge in other countries.

Occupied Regions and Population Shifts

Since the onset of the conflict, the population dynamics in the occupied regions, particularly in the Donbas area, have shifted significantly. Over 8 million people have fled from these regions to western Ukraine and abroad, seeking safety and better living conditions.

Additionally, it is reported that a substantial number of people from the occupied regions have been relocated to Russia, likely under a form of mandatory displacement. The exact number is unclear, and it remains uncertain whether this was voluntary or part of Russian ethnic deportation practices.

The latest estimates suggest that the population in the unoccupied areas of Ukraine is likely to be between 30 and 31 million. This figure accounts for the population that remains in the country and the significant number of people who have fled the conflict-ridden areas, including those who may have chosen to emigrate for economic or personal reasons.

Conclusion

The actual population of the unoccupied regions of Ukraine remains a complex and dynamic situation. While the exact figures are difficult to ascertain, the available data and statistical analysis provide a reasonable estimate. The situation continues to evolve, and ongoing events will likely further impact the population dynamics in Ukraine.