The Future of Brexit: Unlikely to Happen Given the Current UK Political Landscape

Over the past three years, the Brexit faction in the UK has faced numerous obstacles in their quest to implement Brexit. This has led some to speculate that the pendulum has swung towards a 'Remain' majority. However, with the upcoming general elections, the likelihood of the Brexit Party winning appears slim. This article will explore the reasons behind this prediction and the implications for the future of Brexit in the UK.

Why is the Brexit Party Less Likely to Win?

The Conservative Party's internal struggle over Brexit, which saw May and other leaders unable to finalize a deal, has now become a thing of the past. The arrival of a new Prime Minister who is more committed to Brexit creates a new dynamic. Furthermore, the previous reluctance of certain factions to support a 'Remain' party means that their influence is waning. Labour, Lib Dems, and others may align with a Remain mandate, offering a united front.

The key players like Jeremy Corbyn, who has historically supported both sides, are unlikely to form a clear 'Remain' political group. With the rise of the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the UK's political landscape is changing. The SNP is already demanding a referendum on independence, while the DUP has lost significant support. This could lead to a rethinking of the constitutional framework of the United Kingdom.

Implications of Brexit Implementation

With a potential Conservative majority post-election, the likelihood of a deal-based Brexit increases. This could mean a smoother transition period leading up to the final exit. However, the absence of leverage against the EU makes the negotiations less favorable for the UK. A no-deal Brexit or 'no-fail Brexit' could be the result, leading to the disintegration of the UK.

The Brexit Party, despite their surge in popularity, is unlikely to win the necessary 320 seats needed for an outright majority. Their disappointing performance in the polls and the decision to run candidates in only a portion of seats has further reduced their prospects.

Conclusion

The future of Brexit looks increasingly uncertain, with events not conforming to the optimism or bleakness of the past years. However, given the current political landscape, the likelihood of the Brexit Party winning is low. The UK is facing the possibility of a deal-based Brexit or a more uncertain path. Only time will tell what the future holds for the United Kingdom and its relationship with the European Union.

Key Points

The current political scenario is unlikely to see the Brexit Party win the UK general elections. The Conservative Party's commitment to Brexit is now more unified due to a new leadership. The SNP and DUP's demands have implications for the UK's constitutional framework. A deal-based Brexit is more likely with a potential Conservative majority, but it also poses challenges for the UK.