What Happens If Vladimir Putin Quits As Russian President Now?

The current situation in Ukraine is complicated and highly sensitive, crowned by the ongoing military conflict. One of the most discussed scenarios is what would happen if Vladimir Putin were to resign from his presidency. This article explores the implications and possibilities surround Putin's potential departure and the emerging geopolitical landscape.

Constitutional Transition

A critical question arises: If Putin were to resign, what would follow according to the Russian Constitution? Article 85 of the Russian Constitution states that the Prime Minister will serve as the Acting President until the next election. Given that the current Prime Minister is Mikhail Mishustin, it's logical to infer that he would initially assume this role. Yet, there are multiple variables at play, making the future uncertain.

Potential Transition Scenarios

Several scenarios could unfold, each with its unique set of challenges and potential outcomes.

Mishustin Becomes Acting President

Given Mishustin's competence, relatively young age, and lack of connections to the military or intelligence, he is a plausible candidate for the next president. However, his decision to actively seek the presidency is questionable. As of now, there is no political ambition to support such a transition. It's more likely that Putin would appoint someone else to the presidency while positioning Mishustin for a comfortable, high-profile role. This move would serve as a political maneuver to control the transition process.

Other Potential Candidates

Sergey Shoigu - Closest Buddy and Top Defense Official

Sergey Shoigu, the current Minister of Defense and a close ally of Putin, is a strong contender. His performance on the battlefield in Ukraine could significantly influence his chances. However, his image as a military official may limit broader public support.

Data points:

Performance in Ukraine: His success in military operations could bolster his candidacy, but any mishaps could prove detrimental. Public Image: As a military leader, his image might not translate well to the presidency. Political Willingness: If he were to run, it would likely mean a significant shift in Putin's strategy.

Sergey Sobyanin - Mayor of Moscow

Sergey Sobyanin, the current Mayor of Moscow, has shown competence in managing large urban areas and a successful track record in campaign management. His role as an elected mayor could provide him with a base of support. However, his journey through the shadow political corridors of Russia remains uncertain.

Data points:

Political Ambition: If he could navigate the complex political landscape, he could be a strong candidate. Public Support: His proven ability to manage Moscow could translate into national support. Shadow Power: Whether he can successfully maneuver in the shadow political realm will be crucial.

Future of Ukraine and Potential Actions by Putin

Regardless of who becomes the next leader, the situation in Ukraine remains volatile. Putin’s exit could influence the course of the conflict, with implications for Russia and its neighbors. Possible actions include:

Potential Non-Nuclear Actions

Biological or chemical attacks on Ukraine, should Putin believe they align with his strategic goals, remain a possibility. By attributing such attacks to others, he can deflect blame and justify further escalation.

Nuclear Options

Putin knows that a nuclear option would lead to his downfall and international isolation. He would likely avoid taking such a drastic step, despite the intense pressure of the conflict.

Continuation and Conclusion of the Article

The future of Russia and Ukraine hinges on the transition process following Putin's departure. The international community will closely monitor any actions and who becomes the next leader. As the situation evolves, the leadership’s decisions will have far-reaching consequences for global stability.

The world awaits further developments and the nuances of political maneuvering that will shape the future.

Keywords: Vladimir Putin resignation, Russian leadership, future of Ukraine, nuclear options, geopolitics