Why Didn't Presidents Bush and Obama Kill Qassem Soleimani?

Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran's elite Quds Force, was a significant figure in Middle Eastern politics and military operations. His assassination in 2020 sent shockwaves across the globe. Many have wondered why Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama didn't take action to eliminate Soleimani during their terms.

A Missed Opportunity: Why Obama Wasn't a Priority

One reason that President Obama didn't target Soleimani lies in the dynamics of the region during his tenure. At the time, ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) posed a more immediate and pressing threat to the United States. Soleimani, while a prominent figure in Iran's military, was less of a direct threat compared to the militant group that was causing significant chaos in Iraq and Syria.

Furthermore, Iran and Syria were allies in their fight against ISIS, which made Soleimani a valuable asset in this context. Additionally, the Obama administration placed Soleimani on their list of terrorists, and most of President Obama's Iran policy focused on securing a nuclear pact, alleviating sanctions, and positioning Iran as a counterbalance to Saudi Arabia's influence in the region. These efforts included ensuring that Soleimani's activities did not threaten these goals.

Obama's Neutral Stance and Geopolitical Complications

President Obama's approach was pragmatic and aimed at balancing various interests in the Middle East. He refused to engage in actions that would anger Iran, as evidenced by his refusal to intervene in Syria when Bashar al-Assad used poison gas against his own people. Assad is a client of Iran, and military aid to Ukraine against Russia was also not considered to avoid offending Russia, which is an important sponsor of Iran.

These factors made the idea of taking military action against Soleimani highly impractical. Since Soleimani was a key figure to Iran's government, killing him would be seen as an act of aggression by the United States, potentially leading to broader conflict.

It is also possible that the question of assassinating Soleimani did not even arise during Bush's term. Soleimani was not as prominent during Bush's tenure, and his primary focus was on fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria. There was also no indication that Bush considered targeting Soleimani for assassination.

Contextual Understanding: Shrewd Strategies and Future Intentions

Soleimani was a highly efficient and ruthless general. During Bush's administration, it was considered shrewd to leave him to do his work, as he was effective in destroying ISIS. His efforts in Syria and Iraq were crucial in weakening the militant group, which benefited not just Iran but also the broader strategic interests of the United States and its allies.

However, when Soleimani's influence started to expand and become more of a strategic challenge in the region, the situation changed. The Trump administration saw Iran, including Soleimani, as a direct threat to regional stability. This policy shift led to the decision to target Soleimani in 2020, aiming to disrupt Iran's regional influence and prevent it from becoming a nuclear power.

Conclusion

In summary, while Qassem Soleimani was a significant adversary, the strategic context and geopolitical complexities of the time made it unfeasible for Presidents Bush and Obama to target him. Instead, their policies were focused on containing Iran through diplomatic and economic means, while also addressing the immediate and pressing threats of ISIS.