Would a Palestinian Army Be Established if Israel Withdraws from the West Bank?

Often discussed in the context of Middle Eastern politics, the idea of a Palestinian army is frequently juxtaposed with the Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank. This article delves into the feasibility and implications of such a scenario.

Current Context and Challenges

One proposed option by some Palestinians involves the establishment of a standing Palestinian Arab army modeled after the one in Gaza. This is described as a “relatively small militia that specializes in firing rockets and mortars over the border, alongside small units that specialize in guerrilla warfare and acts of terror.” However, this proposal raises significant concerns and questions that must be addressed.

Israel’s Stance on Demilitarization

Israel has maintained a firm position that any future Palestinian state must be “demilitarized.” According to the Israeli government and leading Palestinian figures, a mere “police force but no army” is the only acceptable arrangement. This stance is underscored by statements from Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who recently reaffirmed his support for such an arrangement.

“Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Tuesday said he believed a future Palestinian state should be demilitarized, offering rare backing for a key Israeli demand in any peace deal.”

Abbas went on to express his preference for allocating funds towards education and institutions over the establishment of a military force. He believed that “unarmed police forces with batons” would be more appropriate than conventional military units.

Consequences of Continued Occupation

Many believe that if Israel remains in the West Bank, it could turn into a “bi-national hell-hole.” However, the situation might actually be worse if Israel were to withdraw without appropriate measures. Without a strong and capable Palestinian authority, the region could face ongoing instability and conflict.

Reasons Against a Palestinian Army

There are several compelling reasons why a Palestinian army is unlikely to be established, even if Israel withdraws from the West Bank:

No Reason: Palestinians would have no significant reason to establish a military force if Israel remains a dominant power in the region. Threat to Israel: A small and poorly equipped army would be little match for the well-equipped and technologically advanced Israeli military. It is unlikely that the Palestinians would be nguy?n to threaten Israel, knowing the potential devastating consequences. Israeli Opposition: Israel holds significant leverage and would not permit such a force to exist. Any attempt to establish a Palestinian army would likely be met with strong opposition and potential intervention.

International Support and Consequences

The Palestinian Authority’s current security force, “a US-trained security force with small arms to maintain civil control,” is designed to address internal control rather than external military threats. Any aspirations towards a larger, more capable military would face strong opposition from Israel and the international community.

Moreover, such a force could be quickly dismantled by the Israeli military if it were to pose a significant threat. Even the idea of declaring a state with a functioning military capability is likely to face significant international scrutiny and opposition.

Conclusion

While the concept of a Palestinian army is attractive to some, the practical and political realities suggest that such a force is unlikely to be established. The vision is more aligned with theoretical scenarios rather than being a feasible or realistic outcome.

The future of the region will depend heavily on the willingness of both sides to negotiate and compromise on these complex and deeply-rooted issues. For now, the focus remains on demilitarization and the establishment of a stable and peaceful coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians.