Ensuring a Safe Return for the Crew on Board Starliner: A Closer Examination

Boeing's Starliner spacecraft has captured the world's attention as it prepares for its crewed mission to the International Space Station (ISS). With every aspect of the mission meticulously planned, one critical question remains: What is the likelihood that the crew on board Starliner will not be able to return home from their mission at the ISS?

The Backup Plan: Emergency Escape Capsule at the ISS

Even in the extremely unlikely event that the Starliner could not return with the crew, there is always an emergency escape capsule docked at the ISS. This ensures that the astronauts can always make their way back to Earth in a timely fashion. Once they have arrived at the ISS, there is no issue at all in securing a ride back home using other available spacecraft such as Crew Dragon or Soyuz.

This backup plan illustrates the robustness of the space mission planning, reflecting the collective effort of NASA and Boeing to ensure the astronauts' safety. While every attempt is made to keep the Starliner operational, the feasibility of alternative transportation options underscores the contingency measures in place.

Understanding the Likelihood of Equipment Failure

The question of a successful return to Earth is further contextualized by the historical context of space missions. Risks associated with equipment malfunction, such as a non-functioning rocket for deorbit or a heat shield or parachute system failure, are indeed possible but highly improbable. If damage is detected or the deorbit rocket fails, the crew would remain at the ISS until another spacecraft can retrieve them. This scenario is synonymous with the plot of the classic science fiction film Marooned.

Given the challenges Starliner has faced during its development, it is a significant question. Two uncrewed flights, with the first being a total mess and the second undergoing numerous hiccups, have underscored the need for exceptional attention to detail and meticulous preparation. Both NASA and Boeing recognize that a successful crewed mission is crucial for the future of commercial space travel. Any botched mission would undoubtedly generate negative publicity and jeopardize Boeing's reputation.

The Assurance of Starliner's Success

Considering the extensive testing and preparation that has been undertaken, NASA and Boeing are confident in the performance of Starliner. The stakes are high, with the lives of two astronauts and the future of Boeing's space program hanging in the balance. While the possibility of a failure exists, both organizations are optimistic and trust that the Starliner will succeed in its mission.

The scenario of a backup plan involving a rescue using a Soyuz or Dragon further reinforces this confidence. Boeing is unlikely to risk a competitive space agency like SpaceX or Russia's Roscosmos drawing undue attention. A successful Starliner mission would demonstrate the reliability and success of Boeing's commercial spacecraft, paving the way for future endeavors in space exploration.

In conclusion, while the successful return of the crew from the Starliner mission is not without its challenges, the presence of contingency plans and the confidence of those involved in the mission highlight the high likelihood of a safe and successful return. The journey of Starliner is a testament to the dedication and expertise of both NASA and Boeing in ensuring the safety and success of their astronauts.