The Unsheriffed Reality of American Politics and Trump's Re-election Prospects

While the political landscape in the United States is often characterized by dramatic shifts and unexpected outcomes, the reality of American politics is often far less erratic. This article delves into the undercurrents of this phenomenon, using the 2020 election and subsequent events as a lens to explore the challenges and realities facing Donald Trump's re-election prospects in 2024.

Myth vs. Reality: The Failed Presidency Argument

The narrative of 2020 is often framed as a poisoned election, with many questioning whether the outcome was fair. However, this framing neglects the broader context of ongoing policy failures and their consequences. One such example is the argument that President Trump would have fared better against a Democratic administration like that of Hillary Clinton in 2020 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The counterargument is compelling: if a Republican regime could not manage the early stages of the pandemic, it is equally improbable that a Democratic regime would have been blameless. Even with a theoretical zero-deaths scenario under Clinton, any minor policy mishap could have led to widespread criticism and political fallout. The unpredictable nature of such crises reveals the true mettle of a presidential administration.

American Economy as an Unsheriffed Frontier

The American economy, often described as an "engine of wealth creation," moves forward without significant oversight, allowing for a sense of self-regulation. This empowered nature of the economy means that even a mischievous democratic administration like Trump's can skittishly benefit from the economic upswings without appearing too incompetent.

However, when unexpected disasters strike, as they did under both the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations, the true character of the presidency is laid bare. Bush's policies during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent economic downturn showcased a profound lack of preparedness and failure of nerve. The auto industry crisis during Bush's second term exemplified this inadequacy, nearly leading to a catastrophic failure of the economy.

Similarly, Trump's response to crises, particularly the economic fallout, was characterized by denial rather than action. His administration did little to address the underlying issues until it was too late, often leaving it to Democratic successors to manage the fallout. This failure to effectively meet crises head-on is symptomatic of a broader political apathy and unwillingness to take decisive action.

A Thought Experiment: The Silicon Valley Bank Crisis

To illustrate this point, consider the hypothetical handling of the Silicon Valley Bank disaster under a Trump administration. Unlike the Biden administration, which ensured that depositors were protected and the bank crisis contained, a Trump administration might have prioritized investor protections over depositor interests, exacerbating the situation further.

This thought experiment highlights the stark differences in approach between the two parties, with Democrats focusing on providing services and improvements to their constituents, and Republicans more often advocating for privileges and tax breaks for their patrons. The contrast in response strategies underscores the importance of leadership in times of crisis and the potential for long-term economic damage due to inadequate governance.