UK Election in December 2019: Conservative Majority or Pro-Brexit Coalition?

The upcoming UK general election in December 2019 is poised to bring significant changes to the political landscape. With the Conservatives looking at the possibility of forming a majority government, the question remains: can Boris Johnson and the Conservatives effectively maintain their position, or could they be challenged by a pro-Brexit coalition?

Conservative Majority vs Pro-Brexit Coalition

Recent polls and political developments suggest that the Conservatives are on track to win the most seats, potentially securing a working majority government. This could be significantly impacted by how Boris Johnson positions himself during the campaign. Previously known as Pre-Marriage Boris, who emphasized traditional conservative values, Johnson's current stance as Post-Marriage Boris could shift the balance of power.

Post-Marriage Boris, who has embraced more progressive policies, may find it difficult to win back votes from the traditional conservative yet Pro-Brexit voters. It is crucial that Johnson and the Conservatives maintain their image as Pre-Marriage Boris, emphasizing their commitment to big 'C' conservative ideas and pro-Brexit policies.

Impact of UK Reform Party

A significant factor to consider is the impact of the UK Reform Party, now having their own MP. While this provides a boost in credibility, the Reform Party's success will largely depend on their ability to mobilize their scattered membership. Unlike the Liberal Democrats (DUP), who can attract more votes but still maintain a significant number of MPs, the Reform Party's broader membership dispersion means they can pull votes from the Conservatives but struggle to elect MPs to make a substantial difference.

Path to Government Formation

Winning an election in the UK does not always guarantee a majority government. Even if the Conservatives secure the most seats, forming a majority requires a coalition with other parties or a Confidence and Supply arrangement. The leadership of the winning party typically gets the first opportunity to form a government, but if they fail, other parties may try to form their own coalition.

The potential for a pro-Brexit coalition arises if smaller parties such as the DUP continue to support the Conservatives. The Conservatives may also need to make deals with other parties to secure their position. Such deals could range from formal coalition arrangements to more pragmatic Confidence and Supply agreements, where the smaller party does not join the government but agrees not to vote against key measures.

The outcome of the December 2019 election will depend on the negotiation and bargaining skills of both the Conservative Party and other potential coalition partners. The effectiveness of these negotiations will determine whether the Conservatives can form a robust majority government or if a pro-Brexit coalition emerges.