Why Media and Polls Fared Better in the 2024 US Election

The 2024 US presidential election saw a mix of outcomes, with various media and polling companies presenting different perspectives. This article delves into why some non-liberal pollsters accurately predicted the results, while others may have fallen short in certain aspects.

Accurate Predictions and the Margin of Error

One key point to consider is that most pollsters, regardless of their political leanings, often show the race as closely tied within the margin of error. This aligns with the principle that the closer the race, the less reliable the prediction becomes, adding an element of unpredictability that is inherent to any election. This margin of error is crucial in understanding why the outcome was not too surprising, as polls indicated.

The Role of Political Influence on Polling

It's also important to recognize that polling companies are influenced by their paymasters, whether they be major donors or large corporations. Political influence can skew the results, as pollsters may be pressured to produce results that support the interests of their funders. For example, if a polling company is heavily funded by liberal donors, they may be more likely to present results favoring liberal candidates, thereby influencing public perception and voter behavior.

Manipulation Through Polling

The influence of media and polls extends beyond just prediction. Major entities with significant financial influence can manipulate polls to influence the outcome of an election. For instance, large corporations like Amazon, Walmart, or Google might contribute substantial funds to polling companies, thereby shaping the narrative and steering public opinion. This is particularly evident when polls show candidates in extremely close races, which can manipulate voter expectations and behavior.

Media Ownership and Bias

The ownership and control of media outlets can also play a significant role in shaping public perception. For example, when a close election is expected, media owners might set the betting line to favor a candidate from their political camp. This paints a picture that contradicts the actual lobbying and influence at play.

The Reality vs. Perceived Outcome

To illustrate this point, consider the discrepancy between polls showing a 50-50 or 51-49 split and the eventual outcome. This was particularly evident in the case of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, where polls showed a tight race, but the final results were significantly different. This suggests that the polls were more influenced by their funders or owners than by true voter sentiment.

In conclusion, both media and polls in the 2024 US election faced challenges due to political influences and vested interests. Accurate predictions come with careful analysis and an understanding of the broader context in which these predictions are made.