Why Was the 2020 Presidential Election So Close Despite Predicted Biden Victory?

The presidential race of 2020 between Joe Biden and Donald Trump was marked by unexpected closeness, despite pre-election polls convinced of a clear Biden triumph. Many factors contributed to this outcome, ranging from polling inaccuracies to the complexities of the mail-in voting process.

Polling Inaccuracies

The pre-election polls were largely inconsistent with the actual results, with many polls failing to accurately predict a Biden victory. This led to questions about the reliability of polling methods and the potential biases that could influence these predictions.

Methodological Biases in Polling

Many people believe that the polls are influenced by biases, much like the media. Pollsters often use landline telephones and poll between 9 am and 5 pm on weekdays, which effectively excludes certain demographics and political leanings. This methodology is criticized for skewing the results towards Democratic respondents, as these are the groups that tend to be more available and more likely to participate in such surveys.

The leaked emails from Hillary Clinton's campaign and prominent pollsters support these concerns. The emails reveal that there was a deliberate effort to create a narrative rather than to generate actionable intelligence about the electorate. This further underscores the possibility of bias and the need for more transparent and diverse polling methods.

The Role of Mail-in Ballots

The heavy reliance on mail-in ballots in the 2020 election added a layer of complexity to the outcome. Numerous issues were reported related to ballot counting and voter verification, all of which contributed to the unexpected closeness of the election.

Ballot Verification and Counting Challenges

As of midnight on November 3rd, 2020, Biden appeared to have secured a victory. However, states that counted mail-in ballots after the initial tally reported enough additional ballots to potentially reverse the result the following day. This adds an additional layer of uncertainty to the election results.

Thousands of ballots were lost or mishandled. In Pennsylvania, over 100,000 absentee ballots were not counted because they were not placed in the correct sleeves before being sealed. Furthermore, hundreds of thousands of provisional ballots were not counted, with many being rejected due to signature or address mismatches. These issues highlight the difficulty in accurately counting mail-in ballots, as the process is very prone to human error and logistical challenges.

The Impact of Public Opinion and Political Avoidance

The unexpected close election can also be attributed to public opinion and the reluctance of many people to openly discuss their political beliefs, especially in certain work environments. Many individuals who are not aligned with the mainstream political party are hesitant to share their views or participate in polls, fearing the potential consequences of being labeled a "liberal" or "conservative."

Social and Professional Pressure

There is a growing atmosphere of political correctness and pressure to conform to political norms. Those who hold different political beliefs may face social ostracism or even job loss. For example, individuals working in businesses strongly aligned with one political party may face prejudice or even termination if they do not support the party line.

This social and professional pressure can significantly impact the accuracy of polls. It is not uncommon for people to modify or hide their opinions when answering political questions, especially if they believe that doing so could harm their personal and professional relationships. This behavior can skew poll results, making them less reliable as indicators of actual voter sentiment.

Conclusion

The 2020 presidential election results were a complex mix of polling inaccuracies, challenges related to mail-in ballots, and the impact of social and professional pressures on public opinion. While many factors contributed to the unexpected closeness of the election, these issues underscore the need for more transparent and diverse polling methods and a reevaluation of the counting processes for mail-in ballots.