Scotland’s Independence and EU Membership: An Improbable Scenario

Many people wonder whether the United Kingdom (UK) would use its influence to prevent Scotland from joining the European Union (EU) in the event of Scottish independence. However, historical precedents and the nature of the EU itself suggest that such an attempt would be futile and counterproductive.

Historical Precedents and EU Influences

The UK's failed attempt to pressure the EU not to accept Estonia during a period of relative stability highlights the limitations of such efforts. Estonia, as a member of the EU at the time, represented a more stable and cooperative partner compared to a hypothetical independent Scotland. The UK's influence, even when participating fully in EU affairs, proved insufficient to sway EU decisions.

Speculating further on how the UK might fare as a non-member is speculative at best. The EU's decision-making process would be much less influenced by the UK, which is no longer a member and thus lacks the political leverage it once held. This shift would render any attempt to exert influence via pressure much less effective, if not entirely ineffective.

Character and Behavior of EU Members

The EU is not driven by a narrow, self-serving mentality. Its behavior has often demonstrated a spirit of cooperation and mutual benefit. For instance, the EU granted extensions to the UK's Brexit negotiations, showing flexibility and understanding, rather than using its power to sabotage others.

Requests to other member states, such as Hungary, to veto Brexit extensions during the summer of the previous year, highlight the EU's cooperative nature. Rather than being an adversarial organization, the EU operates more like a family, where cooperation and mutual support are the norm, despite occasional disagreements.

The idea of the EU as a purely adversarial organization is a misconception. The EU is meant to be a collaborative platform for mutual growth and benefit. Its members join with the intention of achieving collective goals, not to engage in petty squabbles.

The Scottish EU Membership Scenario

Even if Scotland were to become independent, the EU would not necessarily block its membership application. Slovenia, a member state, did not face such obstacles when applying for EU membership five years after declaring independence from Yugoslavia. Such a precedent shows that the EU can be responsive to applications from new states.

Any EU member state retains the ability to veto a country's application for membership, including Scotland. However, the current spirit of the EU would likely view such a veto as inappropriate and uncharacteristic. It would be akin to a parent throwing a child out of the house out of spite, something considered extremely unneighborly and petty.

Concluding Thoughts

Efforts by the UK to pressure the EU not to accept Scotland as an EU member would be both futile and counterproductive. The EU's collaborative nature, demonstrated through past actions, suggests that any attempt to block Scotland would be seen as an ugly and selfish act. As an independent member, Scotland would have the right to apply for EU membership, and this application would be handled based on the merits of its case rather than political spite.

The future of Scotland’s relationship with the EU, should independence occur, would likely evolve through a process of negotiation and mutual cooperation, rather than through oppressive measures or blocs.